Broncos Contracts

On Februrary 8, I wrote this inside my annual Broncos offseason road map:

I will not consider any acquisition of a quarterback under contract with another team (looking at you, rumors of Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson) as realistic unless and until enough compelling evidence emerges otherwise.

Exactly one month later...yeah, I'll take "Comments I'm Happy That Aged Terribly" for $400, Alex.

Suffice to say, trading for Russell Wilson is a massive change in direction for the Broncos and their 2022 plans, in a very positive direction. Finally, I can banish what has been at the top of the road map in some form in regularity, just like Brandon Perna wants to banish the carousel graphic:

1. Fix the quarterback position

That strikethrough text feels really good to see.

Nonetheless, there are still important goals remaining to achieve to fully get the Broncos to the best competitor they can be--and that is as a Super Bowl competitor.

Under the leadership of George Paton, the Broncos decided to go with major changes at coaching. Nathaniel Hackett now takes over at head coach, and will call offensive plays while extensively turning over staff on all three phases of the ball. Knowing the extent of these changes was needed in order to build a proper road map--and even then, there is still a small bit of uncertainty. This road map assumes that the Broncos will hire Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator after the Super Bowl is over, and will retain much of the structure that the defense had under Vic Fangio.

This road map will also be shorter than most offseasons, as Paton has is already far ahead of schedule in resolving several major questions that were otherwise coming up as outstanding for 2022: Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick were both extended, Von Miller was traded to the Rams before his contract expired, and Graham Glasgow took a significant pay cut very soon after the conclusion of the season.

But make no mistake: there is still plenty of work to do, and that is because the Broncos remain on a playoff drought that is completely unacceptable to the standards of the organization. It is imperative that the team does what is needed to immediately get back to playoff football, where anything can happen once a team is in that tournament.

Yesterday, Ryan O'Halloran of the Denver Post released some details on the extensions for both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. These details tell us much about the new contracts, and through them, I can take some guesses at some other contract features, with varying levels of confidence. I still cannot square the numbers perfectly on a few aspects, so please consider the contract tables you'll see below as provisional, and subject to change should more precise information come in.

Next offseason, the Broncos will have a high number of unrestricted free agents to address. As of this publication, that stands at 21 players, and I identify 12 of those that could be important to retain beyond 2021. Normally, I would write up examinations of potential extensions for some of these players. This year, however, I believe there is so much uncertainty with nearly all these players that it would not be worthwhile to offer detailed contract examples at this point. Instead, I believe we need, at the very least, to see how these players do in training camp, and perhaps some regular season play as well, before we can get a better idea on what fair future compensation is, for both the team and the player.

Here's a list of the players in question, and what we should be looking for on the field to help determine their contractual futures in the NFL.

At the conclusion of each Broncos season, I pave out a road map as to what my suggestions are to improve the roster. At this time of year, most relevant roster decisions have been made. Thus, as always, it's a good time to evaluate my road map as compared to what the Broncos actually did, keeping me honest and making sure that I address anything I got wrong.

Per Field Yates:

Simmons's contract table can be found beyond the fold:

Per Aaron Wilson:

Darby's contract table should look as follows, below the fold:

Per Aaron Wilson:

Harris's contract table should look as follows, below the fold:

The Broncos will enter a new era of football leadership, with John Elway moving on to a presidential role with the team for 2021, and hiring a GM that will take over the duties of improving the team.

And that new GM is going to have some pressure to improve immediately, because what has happened recently is simply not Denver Broncos football. Five straight seasons of missing the playoffs. Four straight losing seasons. 29th in DVOA. Swept by the Chiefs for five straight seasons. Swept by the Raiders--the Raiders!--for the first time since the rock bottom season of 2010. This is unacceptable. Yes, injuries and a pandemic have taken their toll. But that should only raise the expectations further for 2021, and expectations should always be high in Denver.

As always, here my annual recommendations on how to turn things around for the positive.

Per Ryan O'Halloran:

According to a league source who has viewed the full contract, here are the details:
*The deal is four years and $68 million (average of $17 million).
*The full guarantee is $40 million.
*The signing bonus is $20 million.
*The three-year cash is $39,969,383.
*The salary cap hits … $7.5 million (2020), $5 million (2021), $21 million (2022), $18 million (2023) and $20 million (2024).
*Bolles’ 2021 base salary, although only $1 million, is already guaranteed.
*Bolles’ 2022 base salary is fully guaranteed by the fifth day of the ’21 league year (March).
*In 2023, $2 million of Bolles’ base salary is guaranteed for injury-only and the base salary is fully guaranteed by the fifth day of the ’23 league year.

These details should translate to the following contract table: