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Case Keenum Contract Details

https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/974049410475806725 UPDATE: March 16 - It took a while, but Mike Klis finally comes through with the numbers: https://twitter.com/MikeKlis/status/974750025421959168 Keenum's contract table is as follows, beyond the fold:
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Cap Number Dead Money & Cap Savings
2018 $8,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $15,000,000 $25,000,000 ($10,000,000)
2019 $18,000,000 $3,000,000 $0 $21,000,000 $10,000,000 $11,000,000
Here are my early takeaways from this structure:
  • Keenum's 2018 cap number of $15 million is quite reasonable, but I worry a bit about the 2019 number of $21 million, because 2019 is a year I foresee in which the Broncos are going to be strapped for cap space. This is increasingly true due to the restructure of Von Miller that sent an extra $4 million of cap dollars to 2019. I am guessing that the Broncos are planning that if Keenum plays very well in 2018, they will extend him with the added goal of reducing his 2019 cap number at the same time. If Keenum does not play well or is outplayed by a young quarterback, they can instead cut him.
  • And on the topic of cutting in 2019, Klis suggests that "this is [an] ironclad 2-year deal". But I'm not seeing it in this structure. $11 million is still a significant chunk of cap savings to be had even if the Broncos have to carry a $10 million dead money figure. If Keenum truly is a one year wonder, the contract is not as much of a disaster to escape from as, say, what the Texans offered Brock Osweiler.
  • Another option to part ways with Keenum in 2019 is via a trade. The Broncos would be relieved of the salary guarantees on Keenum's 2019 year in such a move. This scenario could play out if Keenum plays OK or very little and a young quarterback plays much better.
  • As such, this contract does not preclude the Broncos from drafting a rookie quarterback. I realize this has been a point of contention on this site in recent weeks, and I will not offer a new opinion on this divisive subject yet. All I want to do is note its possibility.
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Roster Decisions For The 2018 Broncos As Of The Combine

Yesterday, John Elway gave a press conference in Indianapolis as the NFL gears up for the Scouting Combine. Within this conference held some possible clues as to how the Broncos will attack the 2018 league year when it begins on March 14. It's important to keep in mind that what was said by Elway is by no means binding until transactions (or lack thereof) are official. Everything is going to this plan until it doesn't. Nonetheless, Elway tends to be, for better or worse, a fairly straight shooter when it comes to the media, so there's value in hearing what he said and taking some insight from it to try to figure out where Denver will be headed in two weeks. This article will take tweets from reputable reporters citing what Elway said, and I'll follow it with my commentary. Please refer to my 2018 offseason road map as to where my opinions lie as to where the Broncos should go.Read more...

How Can The Broncos Get Kirk Cousins?

The Broncos need a quarterback. Officially, Kirk Cousins is deemed to be the best quarterback available in free agency. Thus, it's natural for some to think that the Broncos could be interested in bringing Cousins to their team. But as you may know, there may be obstacles in the way of such a goal. What are those obstacles, and how can they be navigated to achieve this goal? Let's take a look at what such a process would look like, one step at a time.Read more...

2018 Broncos Offseason Road Map

In three years of doing these road maps, the Broncos have gone from Super Bowl champion to mediocrity to holding a top five draft pick. A disappointing trend, to say the least. However, while the Broncos had a very complex road map after winning the Super Bowl, this time around I think the road map is more straightforward than the past two years. However, it will be as challenging as always, and with higher stakes than usual.Read more...

The Transactions The Broncos Can Execute To Gain 2018 Cap Space

There's been much talk about what the Broncos can do to get the cap space they may need to improve their roster. This list is intended to demonstrate every transaction the Broncos can execute to gain at least $2 million in 2018 cap space. This list strictly does not issue any opinion on whether each of these transactions would be wise or not (although you are free to opine in the comments, of course). It is only a factual list to give you the information you need to form opinions on what the best course of action should be for the 2018 Broncos. This list is sorted from highest to lowest savings possible. * Restructure and extension numbers represent the maximum amount of cap savings possible. Actual restructures or extensions will likely be less than this maximum.
  1. Restructure Von Miller: $13.56 million*
  2. Cut Aqib Talib: $11 million
  3. Decline Demaryius Thomas's option: $8.967 million
  4. Cut Derek Wolfe, post June 1: $8.55 million
  5. Cut Emmanuel Sanders, post June 1: $8.25 million
  6. Extend Bradley Roby: $6.188 million*
  7. Cut Derek Wolfe: $6.175 million
  8. Cut Menelik Watson, post June 1: $6.125 million
  9. Extend Chris Harris, Jr.: $5.268 million*
  10. Cut Emmanuel Sanders: $5.5625 million
  11. Restructure Aqib Talib: $4.99 million*
  12. Cut Menelik Watson: $4.79 million
  13. Restucture Ronald Leary: $4.64 million*
  14. Cut CJ Anderson: $4.5 million
  15. Cut Domata Peko: $3.7 million
  16. Restructure Emmanuel Sanders: $3.6675 million*
  17. Restructure Derek Wolfe: $3.63 million*
  18. Restructure Chris Harris, Jr.: $3.2925 million*
  19. Restructure Brandon Marshall: $2.8 million*
  20. Restructure Darian Stewart: $2.39 million*
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Donald Stephenson’s Contract Is Set To Void Before 2018

This is knowledge that I've mentioned in comments several times over the course of the season, and I should have expounded it in an article like this earlier:  Donald Stephenson's contract, originally a three year deal from 2016-2018, is now set to void the final year upon the conclusion of the 2017 league year.Read more...

Second Contracts of John Elway Draft Picks, 2011-2013

In today's daily thread we had a discussion on whether, and to what extent, the value of second contracts correlates to the worth of a drafted player.  Per a related request, I was able to pull the data on all second contracts signed by Broncos drafted by John Elway that were eligible for one.  Currently, those were players drafted from 2011 to 2013.  I have no immediate insights from this data, but I'll post it up beyond the fold anyway, and we are all free to come to some observations in the comments.
Year Rd Pick Name Total APY Guarantee Total Earnings Non Guar. Pct. Earned Status
Amount Pct.
2011 1 2 Von Miller $114,500,000 $19,083,333 $42,000,000 $25,500,000 22.3% -- Active
2011 2 45 Rahim Moore $12,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 41.7% 0.0% Terminated
2011 2 46 Orlando Franklin $36,500,000 $7,300,000 $16,500,000 $20,100,000 55.1% 9.9% Terminated
2011 3 67 Nate Irving $7,250,000 $2,416,667 $1,500,000 $1,750,000 24.1% 3.4% Terminated
2011 4 108 Quinton Carter N/A
2011 4 129 Julius Thomas* $46,000,000 $9,200,000 $21,000,000 $21,200,000 46.1% 0.4% Traded
2011 6 189 Mike Mohamed $1,050,000 $525,000 $0 $880,588 83.9% 83.9% Expired
2011 7 204 Virgil Green $8,400,000 $2,800,000 $2,500,000 $5,600,000 66.7% 36.9% Active
2011 7 247 Jeremy Beal N/A
2012 2 36 Derek Wolfe $36,700,000 $9,175,000 $12,000,000 $12,550,000 34.2% 1.5% Active
2012 2 57 Brock Osweiler* $72,000,000 $18,000,000 $21,000,000 $21,000,000 29.2% 0.0% Traded
2012 3 67 Ronnie Hillman $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $600,000 $600,000 30.0% 0.0% Terminated
2012 4 101 Omar Bolden $840,000 $840,000 $80,000 $80,000 9.5% 0.0% Terminated
2012 4 108 Philip Blake $930,000 $465,000 $0 $0 0.0% 0.0% Terminated
2012 5 137 Malik Jackson $85,500,000 $14,250,000 $31,500,000 $18,000,000 21.1% -- Active
2012 6 188 Danny Trevathan $28,000,000 $7,000,000 $13,500,000 $10,100,000 36.1% -- Active
2013 1 28 Sylvester Williams $16,500,000 $5,500,000 $7,250,000 $2,000,000 12.1% -- Active
2013 2 58 Montee Ball $112,200 $112,200 $0 $19,800 17.6% 17.6% Terminated
2013 3 90 Kayvon Webster $7,750,000 $3,875,000 $4,250,000 $0 0.0% -- Active
2013 5 146 Quanterus Smith N/A
2013 5 161 Tavarres King $405,000 $405,000 $12,600 $250,835 61.9% 58.8% Expired
2013 6 173 Vinston Painter $420,000 $420,000 $0 $420,000 100.0% 100.0% Expired
2013 7 234 Zac Dysert $66,000 $66,000 $0 $66,000 100.0% 100.0% Terminated
* Thomas and Osweiler have more guaranteed money remaining, but they will be paid out to the team that acquired them via trade than the team that originally signed them.Read more...
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