Broncos Contracts

As the Broncos' 2022 regular season commences today, MarsLineman has a very good post up on sister site Biomechanical Review analyzing Randy Gregory, and here is the ultimate conclusion:

For a team like Denver, which is likely now entering a championship window, Gregory can offer some meaningful playmaking– both in run defense and as a rusher– as long as he is utilized correctly (not as an every down player), and kept healthy. And a deep roster of edges/ pass rushers behind him is a necessity. Thankfully Denver seems to have taken these factors into consideration when building significant depth at OLB.

However, long term expectations should be kept in check. Gregory will be turning 30 this upcoming season, and it’s possible, perhaps probable, that a steep decline in effectiveness is lurking around the corner. Once Gregory starts to enter his 30s, his reliance on sacral area borrowing may significantly limit his effectiveness– once his burst starts to fail, he will be unable to win his matchups with the same combination of raw effort/ strength. Hopefully Gregory can contribute meaningfully in the short term, while managing and maximizing a shrinking pool of ‘burst’ over the longer term.

I'd like to briefly add a few contractual observations that support the findings here, and suggest that the Broncos may be in concurrence with the idea that Gregory's five year contract on paper may in practice be much shorter.

As first reported by Adam Schefter early this morning, Russell Wilson has agreed to a five year extension with the Broncos appended to his previous contract, keeping him under contract in Denver through the 2028 season, when he will turn 40. Late this morning, Mike Klis provided full details of Wilson's contract, of which has now been uploaded to Over The Cap, as follows:

italics - fully guaranteed salary
*vested guarantee on 5th day of 2024 league year

Last month, I set out some guidelines of what a Russell Wilson extension could look like. The core aim was to settle in at an APY neatly in between that of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but still giving Wilson cash flow and guarantee structures that would be at or near the top of the NFL.

However, I also said this:

There are also plenty of other quarterbacks that could push metrics up with their own extensions. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert will be eligible for such for the first time after this season, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray will be pushing for their own extensions, and even Baker Mayfield could make things move if he proves his first overall pick pedigree given that he got a fresh start in Charlotte just last Wednesday. Wilson could benefit more if any of those players sign contracts beforehand.

Well, Kyler Murray did just that on July 22. And this contract now makes it clear that what I set out last month as a possibility no longer is so.

The past week, I crafted out some potential contract extensions that could lie ahead for Russell Wilson, Bradley Chubb, Dre'Mont Jones, and Dalton Risner. Should all those players be extended along those lines, it will put considerably new expenditures on the Broncos' roster to manage. As such, it's worth taking a peek on what this means for other players on the roster and for the team as a whole.

The Broncos made a massive change to their identity when they traded for Russell Wilson, given the high caliber of player he is, and the commensurate compensation they gave up to trade for him. He is going to be the face of the franchise for many years to go, and the Broncos will recognize that at some point with a similarly massive extension.

Bradley Chubb was drafted with an pick that was unusually held high by the Broncos, at 5th overall. Since then, the first four years of his NFL career has been a rollercoaster: an outstanding rookie season and a Pro Bowl 2020 season, but a torn ACL in 2019 and lingering foot injury problems in 2021. With so much injury variance in his history, this puts plenty of uncertainty in what his next contract should look like.

Another one of the productive players that the Broncos got in the 2019 NFL is Dre'Mont Jones, who has been a regular contributor on the defensive line from the beginning, and a starter the past two seasons, a level he should be expected to at least meet for 2022. At only age 25, he's the type of player that should be eyeing a bigger contract soon.

The Broncos had to let go of a significant part of their rookie class from the 2019 NFL Draft, as Noah Fant and Drew Lock were both sent to Seattle as part of the cost to acquire Russell Wilson via trade. However, there is still much success that the Broncos had in that draft that is still on the team. One of those players is Colorado native Dalton Risner, who has started in every game that he was healthy enough to do so ever since joining the team as a rookie. What could a long term future that continues his long tenure within Colorado look like?