Broncos Contracts

Brock Osweiler is now a Houston Texan, signing a contract reported to be in the range of $18 million per year.  There's already a lot of innuendo on why Osweiler chose to leave Denver.  Mike Klis, for example, reported that there was a lack of communication from Osweiler over the past two weeks.  There's been rampant speculation that Osweiler may have been upset from being benched in the Chargers game on Week 17 of 2015. I'm going to take nothing more than a guess on why I think Osweiler chose the Texans over the Broncos.  However, my hope is that this is an Occam's Razor type of guess.  My guess is that Jimmy Sexton thought that the Broncos severely lowballed Osweiler with the initial offer in the $13-15 million per year range.  And as Houston proved today, and Philadelphia proved with Sam Bradford a week ago, Sexton was correct if he came to that conclusion.  Once it was clear the Broncos weren't going to breach $18 million, there was likely no need for either side to seriously negotiate further. Now, I'm perfectly fine with the Broncos holding firm and refusing to sign Osweiler to an $18 million per year plus deal.  John Elway is excellent about standing firm and not getting the team in trouble by overpaying.  That's what makes him one of the best GMs in the business.  And of course, the Broncos proved without a shadow of a doubt that you can win Super Bowls with a dominant defense amid mediocre quarterback play. However, I think the Broncos would also be wise to accept the fact that there simply is no existing mid-level market for veteran starting QBs.  So many of us at Thin Air thought Osweiler could be had with a Nick Foles contract, but we were all dead wrong: Foles, along with Tom Brady, have become outliers.  Excluding them, the veteran starters start at $16 million per year and go up from there.  As Osweiler proved, even $16 million per year may now be too cheap. So what's the conclusion I'm coming to?  Before I get there, allow me to comment on some actions that I would not take.

• First, I would cross Ryan Fitzpatrick off the prospective quarterback list.  As Adam Schefter repeated many times on the air at ESPN today, if Bradford and Osweiler got $18 million per year, Fitzpatrick has every reason to demand the same for starting for a Jets team that was on the brink of making the playoffs.  Fitzpatrick being represented by Jimmy Sexton also doesn't help matters.
• I would also not seriously consider trading for Mike Glennon or AJ McCarron, as some have speculated.   Even if the Broncos hit on one of them, they could be in the same predicament in 2017 (for Glennon) or 2018 (for McCarron) as they were for Osweiler in 2016. Plus, they would be out significant draft pick compensation for acquiring them.
• For the similar reason of giving up draft capital, in previous comments I've been cold on trading for Colin Kaepernick.  However, I'm starting to thaw on it a bit for the reason that at least he's under contract for five more years.  In 2016, his maximum compensation of $14.3 million looks like a bargain, and $16.9 million in 2017 may not be too bad either.  Furthermore, if acquired by trade, the Broncos would inherit a pure "pay as you go" contract as the prorated bonuses from Kaepernick's signing bonus remain the 49ers' worries.  If Kaepernick flames out, he could be cut with no dead money against the Broncos. However, it should also be cautioned that as yet, the 49ers have shown no public interest in trading Kaepernick, so this may not be an option available to begin with.

That leaves the Broncos with picking from a motley crew of remaining quarterbacks on the market.  I would prefer Robert Griffin III simply because he has the most upside, and that because he was cut, he would count against the Broncos in their 2017 compensatory pick formula.  However, perhaps I could be persuaded on another option. But even if Griffin or someone else is acquired, that's clearly not enough insurance at the position.  Thus, here's the primary conclusion I'm at now: draft a quarterback with the 31st overall pick.  And in fact, don't be afraid to trade up a bit if there's good reason to believe that another team in the high second round thinks about trading back into the first round. And take him in the first round, so you can take advantage of that economic fifth year option. If the Broncos really want the quarterback position to take up a smaller amount of the salary cap, this is the only realistic path to take.  That's how the Colts are free riding on Andrew Luck despite taking him first overall.  That's how the Seahawks free rode on Russell Wilson for several seasons.  Of course, it is much easier said than done to hit on that rookie quarterback.  However, thanks to the veteran quarterback premium, it may very well be the only path to take if the Broncos want to continue to prove the mantra of defense winning championships.Read more...

This will be primarily a devil's advocate post.  I still strongly believe that it's in the best interest of the Broncos to secure a contract extension with Von Miller right now to take advantage of gaining 2016 cap space.  However, I'm resigned to the fact that this likely won't happen, and the more likely scenario is for this to follow the same arc as Ryan Clady and Demaryius Thomas: place a franchise tender on Miller now, with an extension ultimately coming before the July 15 deadline. However, I'm going to explore what benefits there may be to letting Miller play out the 2016 season on the franchise tag. Read more...

UPDATE: (10:15 MT) While I was writing this, Jason Fitzgerald gave his own take on OTC.  I recommend reading his article as well as good complementary material, as it's more technical and less Broncos-centric than my own. We all know that Von Miller is going to get paid.  The only question will be how much.  When insiders started suggesting the quote in the title, I took that news with little surprise or alarm.  That's because Miller's floor was always going to be Justin Houston's deal agreed upon with the Chiefs last offseason.  Houston is the second highest paid player by APY, and the fourth highest in full guarantees.  With a floor that high, why not set your ceiling as high as possible if you're Miller's camp? Read more...

So we’re three days away from the Super Bowl, and no matter what happens, that will the conclusion of the Broncos’ outstanding 2015 season. For John Elway and the front office, there will be time to either celebrate or grieve, but that time will be limited. That’s because Elway will face what will easily be the most challenging offseason during his tenure as general manager. There is much that needs to be done, and it needs to be done in only a month’s time, as the start of the 2016 league year—and thus free agency—is on March 9. So, because I may not get time to post this promptly after the Super Bowl, I’ll provide you with my 17-point road map as to how I would navigate the rocky offseason terrain that lies immediately ahead. Suffice to say, with 17 points it’s highly likely that not all of them will be fulfilled to my satisfaction, either to Elway wanting a different direction or players disagreeing on their value. But barring something truly extraordinary on Sunday I doubt the Super Bowl is going to change my mind much.Read more...

You can find the details, all in their glory, at this link.  You know the big picture for the Broncos by now, but there are three Broncos-centric points that I'll emphasize here:

• Julius Thomas has been going back and forth on the 3rd/4th cutoff bubble, so it's only fitting that he now is the cutoff bubble.  That's literal: Thomas was the representative player as the 104th highest ranking player in the league in the regular season out of 2088 total, barely making the top 5%.  However, if my rankings are off by just one or two players, or my snap count adjustments are off, Thomas could just as easily be a 4th instead.  Prepare yourselves equally for either to happen.
• Owen Daniels also barely squeezed his way above the 5th/6th cutoff, and he could go either way as well.  That doesn't matter for the Broncos, as he'll cancel out Rahim Moore no matter what he's valued.  But it will improve the comp pick the Ravens are projected to get for Daniels up to a 5th rounder.
• I did lay out one possible scenario in which the Broncos could get a fourth comp pick, a 7th for Jacob Tamme, but so much has to go right for them that I'd consider it a Lloyd Christmas type chance, akin to the Colts' Week 17 playoff hopes.  Count on the Broncos getting just three comp picks for the 2016 NFL Draft.

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Ian Rapaport has the screenshots of both changes:

• Trading of compensatory picks, effective in 2017
• Anti-tampering exemption reduced to two days before start of free agency

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Earlier today, Jason Fitzgerald at Over The Cap notified me of a salary cap charge that the Broncos incurred today. In doing the math and looking at some team history that I’ll explain beyond the fold, the best guess as to what this cap charge is all about is that former Bronco Tony Carter may have filed a grievance against the team.Read more...

I wrote a more in-depth article at Over The Cap on the subject, but I'd thought I'd quickly deliver the newish developments for the Broncos.  There's one piece of each of good and bad news.Read more...

Unless some major contractual development happens until the 2015 season ends for the Broncos, this will likely be my last rather lengthy take on what lies ahead for the team in this regard. Things could change a lot as we learn about the state of the Broncos after 2015 is in the books, but I think it’s good to lay out what challenges are ahead so that we can be aware of them as this year progresses. UPDATE (4:17 PM MT): Well, just my luck that a major contractual development takes place mere hours after I finished this.  The Broncos signed Evan Mathis to a one-year deal worth up to $4 million.  This takes their combined 2015/2016 cap space down to potentially $13 million.  The post has been updated with this news, and may be updated further as we learn more about Mathis's deal. Read more...

When I last discussed the possibility of extending Brock Osweiler, I expressed a difficulty in doing so because there was scant precedent for a player in his situation--a quarterback with several years in the league but hardly enough playing time to know on what side of the wide divide of starting quarterbacks his pay should reside. Last week, we got what could be the closest comparable possible.  Nick Foles, who not only entered the league the same year as Osweiler, but was also his in-state college rival, signed an extension with the Rams.  I've been waiting on the details to come out before I comment on what this means for Osweiler, and they finally came out earlier this afternoon via Aaron Wilson and Jason La Canfora on Twitter.  You can find the full table from OTC beyond the fold.Read more...